Excavator Sprocket Updating demand and exports will dominate the construction machinery industry, laying the foundation and moving upwards

Excavator Sprocket Updating demand and exports will dominate the construction machinery industry, laying the foundation and moving upwards

According to the calculation of the 8th year as the peak period for excavator updates, the domestic demand for excavator updates will bottom out in 2023, and the demand for updates and exports will dominate, driving the excavator industry's sales to gradually bottom out and rise. It is expected that the sales of excavators and lifting machinery will bottom out and the sales of concrete machinery will rise in 2023. With the continuous optimization of product structure, the increasing proportion of exports, and the expected upward profitability, leading companies have more room for performance release and are expected to turn an upward trend.
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Event:
The Construction Machinery Industry Association released industry import and export data for the first half of the year.
The main viewpoints of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
In the first half of the year, the export amount increased by 26% year-on-year, and the export of construction machinery maintained a relatively high level of momentum
According to customs data, the import and export trade volume of China's construction machinery in the first half of 2023 was 26.311 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. Among them, the import amount was 1.319 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%; The export amount was 24.992 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, and the trade surplus was 23.67 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.31 billion US dollars.Excavator Sprocket Made In China
In recent years, domestic leaders have increased their overseas market layout, continuously expanded the categories of export models, and built and improved marketing networks. The export of the construction machinery industry is expected to continue to maintain a high prosperity.
Recently, the National Standing Committee and the Politburo have successively supported the renovation of urban villages, and the marginal improvement of domestic downstream real estate policies has been achieved
On July 21st, the National People's Congress approved the Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Super Large Cities, pointing out the need to increase policy support for the transformation of urban villages. On the 24th, the Politburo meeting emphasized "adapting to the new situation of significant changes in the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market, adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in a timely manner", reiterated the plan for the transformation of urban villages, did not mention "housing is not speculation", and the wording in the real estate field was relaxed.
As the support for real estate continues to strengthen, the marginal investment in real estate is expected to gradually recover, new construction projects are expected to gradually repair and improve, and downstream demand in the construction machinery industry is expected to improve marginally.

In June, the domestic decline in excavator sales narrowed, and the expected marginal improvement in the domestic market is expected. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate throughout the year
In June 2023, 15766 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%. Among them, 6098 units were domestically produced, a year-on-year decrease of 44.7%, with a decrease of 1.2 pct compared to April; 9668 units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%, and there was some short-term pressure in a single month. From January to June, a total of 108818 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 24%.Excavator Sprocket Made In China
With the strong expectation of stable economic growth in China and the gradual stabilization and upward trend of real estate demand, the physical workload of infrastructure projects is accelerating, and the demand for the domestic construction machinery industry is expected to improve marginally.
The overseas sales of excavators in June continued to account for over 60% after May, and the export sales accounted for 53.1% from January to June, maintaining a high proportion of exports. Domestic leading enterprises have significantly increased their overseas layout in 2022, and industry exports are expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate throughout the year.
In June, truck cranes and forklifts maintained year-on-year growth, while lifting platforms slightly declined, outperforming excavators in performance
In June, the sales of truck cranes reached 2178 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, with exports increasing by 96.7%. 100578 forklifts, a year-on-year increase of 5.13%, with exports increasing by 9.94%. The sales of lifting work platforms reached 18458 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.16%, with a year-on-year increase of 18.6% in the domestic market.
The cumulative sales of truck cranes, forklifts, and lifting work platforms from January to June were 15013 units, 585501 units, and 119614 units, representing -1.1%,+5.8%, and+20.2% year-on-year. The overall repair level is better than that of excavators.
Update demand and exports will dominate, and the construction machinery industry will establish a foundation and move forward, with leading performance expected to turn upward
According to the calculation of the 8th year as the peak period for excavator updates, the domestic demand for excavator updates will bottom out in 2023, and the demand for updates and exports will dominate, driving the excavator industry's sales to gradually bottom out and rise. It is expected that the sales of excavators and lifting machinery will bottom out and the sales of concrete machinery will rise in 2023.
With the continuous optimization of product structure, the increasing proportion of exports, and the expected upward profitability, leading companies have more room for performance release and are expected to turn an upward trend.
Domestic industry leaders are expected to move from Chinese leaders to global leaders through internationalization, digitization, and electrification
Construction machinery is currently an advantageous industry in China, and Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain advantages, and operational efficiency advantages to achieve a global leading position. Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Machinery, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic and other industry leaders will gain considerable market share by virtue of internationalization, digitalization and electrification after completing domestic Import substitution industrialization, and move from Chinese leaders to global leaders.Excavator Sprocket Made In China
Risk reminder:
Infrastructure and real estate investments did not meet expectations; The growth rate of excavator exports is lower than expected.